A preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran has raised hopes of a return to normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz — but at least one leading industry voice is urging the shipping community not to get ahead of itself.
According to Danish business media Finans, as cited by ShippingWatch, consulting firm Xeneta has published a new analysis cautioning that even if the ceasefire holds, a swift recovery in shipping capacity through the strait is far from guaranteed.
Disruption That Has Been Building Since February
The Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed since the end of February 2026, following a mutual blockade between the US and Iran. The closure has had a measurable impact on freight rates across all shipping segments, with both container and oil transport capacity significantly reduced as a result.
Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, was direct in his assessment. “Even if the ceasefire holds, 10% of global container capacity is affected by the blockade, and freight rates are spiraling out of control on the major trade routes. This level of disruption and market volatility cannot be reversed overnight,” Sand stated, as quoted in the Finans article.
Mid-September the Earliest for Recovery
Sand’s analysis points to mid-September, at the earliest, as the point at which container shipping capacity through the strait could begin to be restored. That timeline reflects not just the logistics of reopening a major chokepoint, but the broader market dynamics that have built up over months of restricted access.
The framework currently in place is a memorandum of understanding designed to establish a 60-day ceasefire and facilitate the reopening of the strait while final negotiations continue. However, Sand emphasises that this agreement should be viewed with realism and considerable caution — noting that the parties involved have struggled to reach lasting consensus in the past, and that previous agreements have collapsed.
Does This Matter to You?
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically critical maritime passages. Its prolonged closure since February has already translated into measurable rate increases and capacity constraints across container and tanker markets. Even with a ceasefire now in place, the Xeneta analysis reported by ShippingWatch via Finans suggests the market should not anticipate a rapid unwinding of those pressures.
For those tracking freight markets, vessel positioning, fuel procurement windows, or port scheduling across affected trade lanes, the caution expressed by Xeneta’s chief analyst is directly relevant. Rate volatility and reduced available capacity are expected to persist for months, regardless of diplomatic developments in the near term.
The situation also underscores the fragility of recovery timelines when a major chokepoint is involved — physical and logistical normalisation takes time even after political agreements are reached.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: ShippingWatch (reporting on analysis by Xeneta, originally covered by Finans)
