A potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may be closer than many expected, but a swift return to business as usual for oil flows and shipping traffic is unlikely — even if a US-Iran peace agreement materialises this week.
According to ShippingWatch, Arne Lohmann, chief analyst at Global Risk Management — a firm that provides risk analysis and oil hedging services to the maritime industry — anticipates that the strait could reopen before Friday. However, he cautions that normalisation will unfold in stages rather than all at once.
Oil Flowing Again, But Passage Remains Restricted
ShippingWatch reports that oil is once again moving out of the region, though normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been restored. According to the report, initial export volumes will draw primarily from existing stockpiles. Beyond that, the rate at which Middle Eastern production capacity is brought back online will dictate how quickly the broader market can stabilise.
Lohmann’s assessment, as reported by ShippingWatch, suggests the next 60 days will be critical in determining the trajectory of both oil prices and shipping traffic through one of the world’s most strategically significant waterways.
Industry Caution Runs High
The analyst’s outlook comes as several major shipping companies are maintaining a cautious stance. ShippingWatch also reports that Hafnia has said it will avoid the Strait of Hormuz until safety can be verified, while Maersk is holding a wait-and-see position. Hapag-Lloyd is reportedly preparing a full exit of its ships from the strait over the weekend. Tanker executives, according to ShippingWatch, have emphasised they need to see more than just a written agreement before resuming normal operations.
The Mitsui chief executive, also cited by ShippingWatch, has indicated a weeks-long wait before reopening can realistically be expected — pointing to a wider industry view that diplomatic progress alone will not immediately translate into resumed transit.
Does This Matter to You?
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical chokepoints for global energy flows, and any prolonged disruption carries direct consequences for freight routing, vessel scheduling, bunker demand patterns, and insurance assessments in the region. The phased nature of any potential normalisation — as described by ShippingWatch — means that uncertainty around transit safety, cargo availability, and rate levels is likely to persist well beyond any formal agreement. The 60-day window cited by the analyst signals an extended period of market instability rather than a clean resolution.
ShippingWatch notes that uncertainty regarding tanker rates remains even as the industry anticipates positive developments following a potential Hormuz reopening.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: ShippingWatch
