A ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran marks a turning point in the Strait of Hormuz conflict — yet 36 hours after the deal was reached, the waterway’s full commercial revival remains far off.
According to maritime intelligence firm Windward, the agreement is set to be formally signed on Friday, with Iran reporting that the deal includes a 60-day toll-free transit window through the strait. Until that signing takes place, the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports remains in force.
Ships Are Ready, But Few Are Sailing
Windward reports that approximately 550 cargo vessels and tankers were broadcasting AIS positions west of Hormuz as of June 14, including 86 product tankers, 34 crude tankers, 23 chemical tankers, 80 bulk carriers, 33 containerships, and 15 LNG carriers. While some vessels have repositioned closer to the strait and are anchoring in anticipation of clearance, a full sailing surge has not materialized.
This stands in sharp contrast to April 18, when more than 50 ships attempted AIS-visible transits within 24 hours of Iran’s foreign minister announcing a reopening. At least 33 of those vessels reversed course mid-transit after the IRGC declared the strait closed and attacked two ships. That episode continues to weigh heavily on shipowner decision-making.
Transit Data Suggests Gradual Acceleration
Despite the caution, Windward tracked 151 Hormuz transits between June 1 and June 15 — nearly matching the 156 transits recorded across all of May. Daily transits averaged seven ships in the first two weeks of June, rising to 12 on June 15 alone. Windward notes that 18% of June transits were conducted dark, with the actual proportion potentially higher given the limits of satellite coverage.
Two Corridors in Operation
Until minesweeping operations clear the Traffic Separation Scheme — in use since 1968 — transits are being routed through one of two corridors:
- The northern corridor, running through Iranian waters and controlled by the IRGC on a permission basis.
- The southern corridor, running through Omani waters, with the U.S. government already providing military guidance and support along that route.
Windward reports that a cohort of 15 to 20 tankers is already shuttling oil from terminals west of Hormuz to Fujairah for ship-to-ship transfer, operating via the southern corridor with U.S. support. This pathway is currently moving approximately 2.5 million barrels per day, according to Windward, and is described as scalable once confidence returns.
War Risk Premiums Reach 10% of Hull Value
Marine insurance markets reflect the uncertainty. Windward reports that shipbroker quotes for additional war risk premiums to enter the Listed Area have reached as high as 10% of hull value — up from the 2 to 5% range cited earlier in the conflict. Premiums are expected to ease as maritime security conditions improve.
Seafarers Remain Stranded
The International Maritime Organization is working with at least 15 countries to establish a safe corridor for an estimated 20,000 stranded seafarers, according to Windward’s June 16 report. Security and safety guarantees for that corridor are not yet in place.
The Shadow Fleet Question
Windward identifies Iran’s shadow fleet — more than 200 tankers, many subject to U.S. sanctions — as a significant unresolved factor. These vessels remain immobilized by the blockade on Iranian ports, and their status is described as a wildcard in any broader settlement.
Does This Matter to You?
The Strait of Hormuz handles a significant share of global energy flows, and the dynamics described here carry direct weight for those tracking vessel availability, cargo routing, freight markets, and marine insurance conditions. The combination of elevated war risk premiums, corridor-dependent transit rules, dark vessel activity, and a large pool of stranded tonnage creates an operating environment with meaningful uncertainty across multiple dimensions of the shipping and energy trade. The pace of minesweeping, the trajectory of insurance pricing, and the resolution of Iran’s shadow fleet status are all factors that will shape how quickly — or slowly — normal conditions return.
Windward assesses that the resumption of traffic to pre-conflict levels will be measured in weeks, not days, with energy cargoes bound for Pakistan, India, and China expected to lead the early recovery.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Windward Maritime AI™
