For the first time since the current conflict began, no AIS-confirmed commercial vessel crossed the Strait of Hormuz in either direction on March 14, according to maritime intelligence data published by Windward. The total absence of trackable traffic through the world’s most strategically critical oil chokepoint marks a sharp deterioration compared with an average of 2.57 crossings recorded over the preceding seven days.
Selective Transits Still Occurring Before the Blackout
While March 14 showed no AIS-detectable crossings, Windward confirmed that limited vessel movement had taken place in the hours immediately before. Four cargo vessels were recorded crossing or in transit through the Strait overnight on March 13, including one Pakistani-flagged vessel. Separately, Turkish authorities confirmed that one Turkish-owned vessel received clearance to pass through the Strait following a call at an Iranian port, with 14 additional Turkish-owned vessels still waiting in the region for authorization.
SAR imagery acquired by Windward Remote Sensing Intelligence also identified an approximately 200-meter vessel making a transit on March 13 at 02:05 UTC, suggesting that low-visibility movement continued in the final hours before commercial traffic fell entirely off AIS tracking.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on March 15, as reported by Business Standard, that the Strait remains open to all international shipping and that only U.S. and Israeli vessels face a transit ban. Araghchi framed vessels avoiding the area as responding to general security concerns rather than formal Iranian enforcement measures. The United States has warned that multinational naval forces could be deployed to enforce freedom of navigation if Iran moves to restrict passage.
Approximately 400 Vessels Holding in the Gulf of Oman
Despite the halt in Hormuz crossings, Windward’s multi-source intelligence collected on March 13 detected roughly 400 vessels operating across the Gulf of Oman, pointing to a significant concentration of shipping holding near the chokepoint. The size distribution skewed toward commercial tonnage: 178 vessels fell in the 150–250 meter range, 127 between 80 and 150 meters, and 60 between 250 and 350 meters. Eleven vessels exceeded 350 meters, while just 24 were under 80 meters.
Windward’s analysis notes that the small proportion of sub-80-meter vessels suggests the accumulation is predominantly commercial shipping rather than small-craft traffic. Satellite imagery from the same date also identified at least eight vessels east of the Strait in patterns consistent with floating storage or waiting-to-load operations.
Kharg Island Continues Exports Despite Strikes
Iran’s principal crude export terminal at Kharg Island continues to operate despite recent military strikes, according to reporting by The New York Times and The Washington Post. Intelligence indicates that U.S. strikes targeted military infrastructure rather than oil loading facilities, a distinction that has partially preserved the terminal’s export capacity.
Vessel tracking data from Vortexa identified two sanctioned tankers that departed Kharg after March 11: the SERENA (IMO 9569645), which left on March 11, and the ARK III (IMO 9187655), which departed on March 15. The combined cargo associated with these sailings is estimated at approximately 2.68 million barrels of crude oil.
Electro-optical imagery collected by Windward Remote Sensing Intelligence on March 14 confirmed the presence of six VLCCs and two smaller tankers at or near the terminal. A subsequent SAR pass on March 15 identified approximately ten tankers in the Kharg anchorage area, indicating additional vessels may be waiting to load or operating with reduced AIS visibility. NASA satellite-based fire monitoring detected active fire signatures on Kharg Island on March 14, though no active detections appeared in March 15 imagery.
Global Shipping Corridors Adjust Under Continued Pressure
Bab el-Mandeb
Transit activity through Bab el-Mandeb held broadly stable on March 14, with Windward data recording 21 crossings — 13 inbound and eight outbound. The tally represents a 40% increase versus the previous day and remained close to the seven-day average of 22.57 crossings. Vessel types included six bulk carriers, four container ships, and four crude oil tankers.
Suez Canal
Throughput at the Suez Canal contracted sharply, with only 23 crossings recorded on March 14 — a 39.47% decline from the day prior and well below the seven-day average of 36.86 transits, according to Windward. The vessel mix included five crude oil tankers and five bulk carriers among the leading categories.
Cape of Good Hope
Traffic around the Cape of Good Hope remained active despite a day-on-day pullback. Windward data shows 69 total crossings (35 eastbound and 34 westbound), down 28.12% from the previous day and below the seven-day moving average of 78.25. The traffic was dominated by 27 bulk carriers and 13 container vessels, with five crude oil tankers also transiting. The sustained volumes confirm that long-haul African diversions remain a live routing option for operators avoiding Gulf and Red Sea corridors.
Fujairah Energy Hub Hit by Drone Debris
Oil loading at Fujairah — one of the world’s largest bunkering hubs and a critical Murban crude export outlet with more than 70 million barrels of storage capacity — was temporarily suspended on March 14 following a drone-related incident, as reported by CNBC and Reuters. UAE authorities intercepted the incoming drone, but debris from the interception triggered a fire at the facility, prompting a precautionary halt in loading operations pending a damage assessment.
As previously reported by Bloomberg, Fujairah has served as a key alternative routing point for Gulf energy exports. The incident highlights the vulnerability of this infrastructure to the wider conflict.
U.S. Issues Russian Oil Sanctions Waiver
On March 12, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control published General License 134, temporarily authorizing the delivery and sale of Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products already loaded on vessels on or before that date, according to Riviera Maritime Media and OFAC’s own published notice.
The waiver covers an estimated 215 million barrels of Russian oil carried by approximately 377 tankers currently at sea or in floating storage. According to Windward, the cargo breakdown includes roughly 126 million barrels of crude oil, 60 million barrels of refined petroleum products, and 35 million barrels of fuel oil. Windward further notes that 44% of the affected tankers carry sanctions designations from the United States, United Kingdom, or European Union, and that approximately half of the fleet is classified as high-risk. The fleet spans approximately 10 VLCCs, 60 Suezmax tankers, 135 Aframax or LR2 vessels, and more than 130 Medium Range tankers.
The license permits already-loaded cargoes to reach their destinations but does not authorize new Russian oil trade. Beyond the GL134-covered cargoes, Windward data identifies a further approximately 250 million barrels of Russian crude and petroleum products at sea in floating storage or awaiting discharge, with China and India remaining the principal destination markets.
2Africa Subsea Cable Installation Suspended
The conflict has also begun to affect non-shipping maritime infrastructure. Contractor Alcatel Submarine Networks has issued force majeure notices suspending installation work on the “Pearls” segment of the 2Africa subsea cable project in the Arabian Gulf, citing regional security conditions. The suspension extends the conflict’s reach beyond shipping and energy sectors into the digital connectivity infrastructure underlying the broader region.
Port Disruptions Concentrated in Oman and Pakistan
Transshipment hubs serving Gulf-linked cargo flows continue to record elevated disruption levels. According to Windward’s operational data for March 14:
- Salalah, Oman: 34 cargo rollovers and 36 delay cases — up 76% versus the seven-day average
- Karachi, Pakistan: Six transshipment rollovers and nine delay cases — up 152% versus the seven-day average
- Sohar, Oman: Three delay cases — up 162.5% versus the seven-day average
- Umm al Quwain, UAE: Two transshipment delays — up 900% versus the seven-day average
- Hamad, Qatar: Two transshipment rollovers
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
