Ship & Bunker has sharply raised its bunker price outlook for the third quarter of 2026, after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reversed much of its previous optimism over a swift easing of Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions, according to Ship & Bunker.
In its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA lifted its Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast to $85.21 per barrel, an increase of $11 per barrel from July’s outlook, Ship & Bunker reports. The move undoes much of the $27 per barrel cut the EIA had made in July, when it had assumed regional supply disruptions would ease. Instead, conflict in the region has worsened, and constraints on Hormuz transits have persisted, according to the report.
The EIA now expects Brent to average $78.00 per barrel in Q4 2026, up from $70.00 per barrel previously forecast, Ship & Bunker notes. For the full year, the agency’s Brent forecast rose to $86.81 per barrel from $81.91 per barrel last month. The EIA has also raised its 2027 full-year forecast, from $64.76 to $69.39 per barrel, citing expectations that disruptions of around 600,000 barrels per day will persist through the end of that year even as most regional production returns to near pre-conflict levels in early 2027, according to Ship & Bunker.
According to the report, EIA data shows Middle East shut-in crude production peaked at more than 10 million barrels per day between March and May, easing to roughly 5.5 million barrels per day in July. Disruptions are forecast to average 6.6 million barrels per day across Q3 before falling to 4.2 million in Q4 and 1.6 million in Q1 2027. The resulting drawdown in global oil inventories, which fell by an average of 4.2 million barrels per day in Q2 with a further 3.8 million barrel decline expected in Q3, is expected to keep prices elevated until flows normalize, Ship & Bunker reports.
On the back of the revised crude outlook, Ship & Bunker has raised its G20-VLSFO Index forecast to $705 per metric ton for Q3 2026, up from $604 per metric ton in last month’s outlook, with the Q4 forecast rising to $646 per metric ton. The G20-HSFO Index is now forecast at $593 per metric ton for Q3, while the G20-MGO Index forecast rose to $1,103 per metric ton for the same period, according to Ship & Bunker.
At Singapore, the world’s largest marine fuel hub by volume, VLSFO is now forecast to average $666 per metric ton in Q3, up from $566 per metric ton previously. At Rotterdam, the Q3 VLSFO forecast rose to $602 per metric ton from $520 per metric ton, Ship & Bunker reports. Current prices stood at $847.50 per metric ton in Singapore and $660.00 per metric ton in Rotterdam, with a global average bunker price of $861.50 per metric ton, according to the report.
Does This Matter to You?
This revised outlook is directly relevant to anyone involved in bunker procurement, budgeting, or voyage cost planning. A $100 per metric ton upward revision in the Q3 VLSFO forecast represents a material shift in expected fuel costs for vessels calling at major hubs including Singapore and Rotterdam.
The persistence of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, as detailed in the EIA’s updated figures cited by Ship & Bunker, also signals continued uncertainty around crude supply flows through one of the world’s most critical shipping chokepoints. Those monitoring freight costs, bunker budgets, or regional risk exposure may find the EIA’s extended disruption timeline, stretching into 2027, useful context for longer-term planning.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker
