Regulatory Uncertainty Puts Shipping’s 2030 Green Fuel Goal Further Out of Reach, Report Warns

Shipping’s push to secure a meaningful share of zero-emission fuels by 2030 has lost momentum over the past year, according to a new report from the Global Maritime Forum and UCL Energy Institute, published under the Getting to Zero Coalition, as reported by Ship & Bunker.

The 2026 edition of the Climate Action in Shipping: Progress Towards Shipping’s 2030 Breakthrough report, released Tuesday, tracks the industry’s progress toward ensuring that 5-10% of international shipping’s marine fuel comes from scalable zero-emission fuels (SZEF) by the end of the decade. According to Ship & Bunker, this threshold is viewed as a critical stepping stone toward the sector’s broader goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.

Regulatory Setback Named as Key Obstacle

The report identifies the failure to adopt the IMO Net-Zero Framework last year as what it calls the “single most transition-regressive event” recorded in its five-year publishing history, Ship & Bunker reports. The document urges the IMO to adopt the framework at its December session in order to restore regulatory certainty to the sector.

Mixed Signals on the Ground

Despite the setback, the report points to continued progress in several areas. Ship & Bunker notes that the number of ports offering methanol bunkering climbed 53% year-on-year, rising from 19 to 29, while methanol-capable in-service tonnage tripled over the same period. The past year also saw the first-ever ammonia bunkering operation and related sea trials, according to the report.

Shipping finance also showed its strongest year-on-year improvement in climate alignment since the report began tracking the metric, Ship & Bunker states.

However, other indicators moved in the opposite direction. The share of SZEF-capable vessels in the global orderbook fell from 9.5% to 5.7%, while sustainable debt issuance within the sector dropped from $3.4 billion in 2024 to $3 billion in 2025, according to the findings cited by Ship & Bunker.

Does This Matter to You?

For those monitoring the pace of the industry’s fuel transition, this report offers a mixed but cautionary signal. The slowdown in SZEF-capable newbuild orders and the dip in sustainable debt issuance suggest that near-term investment in alternative-fuel infrastructure and vessels may be losing steam, which could affect long-term fuel availability planning.

At the same time, the expansion of methanol bunkering ports and the milestone ammonia bunkering trial indicate that fuel diversification is still advancing in certain segments, which may be relevant for those tracking bunkering options in specific ports or trade lanes. The report’s call for the IMO to adopt the Net-Zero Framework in December also signals that regulatory clarity, or the lack thereof, remains a live issue that could shape compliance costs and fuel strategy going forward.

Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.

Sources: Ship & Bunker

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