Renewed security threats in the Red Sea could more than double sailing distances for crude oil shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu terminal, according to Clarksons Research.
Steve Gordon, Global Head of Clarksons Research, said in an emailed report on Monday that the warning comes as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains roughly 90% below pre-conflict levels, continuing to strain global tanker markets.
Houthi Attacks Disrupt Bab el-Mandeb Traffic
According to Ship & Bunker, Yemen’s Houthi group claimed attacks on two Saudi-linked tankers last week, marking the first such incidents in the Red Sea this year. Clarksons Research reported that VLCC traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb has since dropped to just one vessel per day, down sharply from an average of three per day during the second quarter.
Meanwhile, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz averaged only 13 crossings per day over the past week, Clarksons said, with crude exports through the strait falling to about 2 million barrels per day, compared with roughly 15 million bpd before the conflict began.
Yanbu Emerges as Alternative, But Faces Its Own Risks
As crude exports shifted away from the Gulf, Yanbu shipped an average of 3.8 million bpd over the past week, approximately 3 million bpd above normal levels, according to Clarksons Research. However, the firm cautioned that prolonged avoidance of the Bab el-Mandeb could also disrupt this alternative export route.
For cargoes destined for Asia, a tanker sailing from Yanbu to China would need to cover roughly 15,000 nautical miles via the Cape of Good Hope if bypassing the Gulf of Aden, compared with approximately 6,700 nautical miles on the direct route, Clarksons Research reported.
The firm estimates that rerouting 50% of Yanbu’s exports to Asian markets could boost global crude tanker tonne-mile demand by around 5%, which would support freight rates. Clarksons reported that average VLCC earnings rose 13% week-on-week to $145,000 per day, while Suezmax and Aframax earnings reached $167,000 and $130,000 per day, respectively.
Longer voyages could also increase global bunker fuel demand. Ship & Bunker noted that bunker supplier and trader Peninsula has previously warned that renewed Red Sea diversions would tighten bunker fuel supply as vessels spend more time transiting around the Cape of Good Hope.
Does This Matter to You?
The shifting trade patterns described by Clarksons Research carry direct implications for tanker owners, charterers, and bunker suppliers monitoring freight rates and fuel availability. Rising VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax earnings signal tightening tonnage supply, which could affect chartering costs and voyage planning for crude carriers operating in the region.
The potential lengthening of Yanbu-to-Asia routes, combined with continued suppressed Hormuz traffic, may also influence bunker fuel demand patterns at key waypoints along the Cape of Good Hope route, a trend already flagged by Peninsula. Port planners and fuel suppliers at locations along alternative routing corridors may see shifts in demand as a result.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker, Clarksons Research
