Global bunker supplier and trading firm Peninsula has warned that a fresh wave of Red Sea diversions may tighten worldwide bunker fuel supply, as vessels once again take the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, according to Ship & Bunker.
In an emailed statement issued Friday, Peninsula said that longer voyages combined with stricter sulfur emissions regulations are pushing up both fuel demand and operating costs for shipowners, Ship & Bunker reports.
Renewed Houthi Attacks Reverse Recent Trend
The warning follows Yemen’s Houthi movement resuming attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea after declaring a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia last week, according to the report. This marks a reversal for the industry, as some container lines had only recently resumed transits through the Suez Canal following an earlier easing of Houthi attacks this year.
According to Ship & Bunker, the latest escalation threatens to once again push vessels away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal route in favor of the longer Cape of Good Hope passage.
“Fundamental Recalibration” of Voyage Economics
Kenny MacLean, Chief Operations Officer at Peninsula, said the industry could face “a sudden, significant increase in fuel consumption,” as reported by Ship & Bunker. MacLean added that the situation goes beyond simply plotting a longer course, warning it will require “a fundamental recalibration of voyage economics that will squeeze global bunker supply at a time when demand already outstrips supply.”
Peninsula estimates that a typical Suezmax tanker taking the diverted route would need approximately 1,500 mt of additional bunker fuel, adding around $800,000 in bunker costs and generating roughly 3,800 mt of extra CO2 emissions, according to the report. The firm also noted that spot rates for Suezmax tankers are already climbing as charterers compete for available tonnage.
Regulatory Pressures Compound the Squeeze
Ship & Bunker reports that Peninsula additionally flagged compliance risks for vessels transiting the Mediterranean, which must switch from standard VLSFO to 0.1% sulfur fuel, such as LSMGO or suitable biofuels, to meet MedECA rules or face fines and detention.
Richard Alvarez, global head of sales at Peninsula, described operators as “navigating a regulatory and logistical minefield,” according to the report. Peninsula expects bunker demand to rise at alternative supply hubs including Port Said, Malta, Gibraltar, Algeciras, Las Palmas, Algoa Bay, and Port Louis, Ship & Bunker notes.
Does This Matter to You?
Rising fuel consumption from longer voyages, combined with tightening MedECA compliance requirements, could affect bunker availability and pricing at key ports named in Peninsula’s outlook, including Gibraltar, Algeciras, Port Said, and Algoa Bay. Rising Suezmax spot rates, as noted in the report, may also influence vessel availability and voyage planning for tanker operators and charterers. The direct scale of impact on broader bunker markets beyond what Peninsula has outlined is not yet clear from available reporting.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker
