Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday as traders grew optimistic about a potential diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran, even though no formal agreement has been signed, according to Ship & Bunker.
As of 1519 GMT, Brent crude dropped $3.30 to $80.47 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell $3.67 to $76.67 per barrel, Ship & Bunker reported.
Diplomatic Signals Drive Market Sentiment
The rally in optimism followed comments from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said talks with Iran and Oman were progressing on allowing more vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the report. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went further, suggesting a final agreement to reopen the Strait could be reached within 24 hours, Ship & Bunker noted.
Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, told Ship & Bunker that meaningful progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations could lead markets to price in a lower probability of supply disruptions, thereby reducing the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in crude prices.
Skepticism Persists Despite the Rally
However, Ship & Bunker highlighted significant doubts about the durability of any deal. Julianne Geiger, market analyst at Oilprice.com, noted that traders have once again priced in a U.S.-Iran agreement before any documents were signed. Geiger added that Iran is reportedly seeking control over inbound shipping and visibility over outbound traffic through the Strait, along with the ability to intervene at will, according to the report.
Adding to the tension, Ship & Bunker reported that a Liberian-flagged cargo ship was struck by a projectile in the Strait near Oman’s coast, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel while rescuers searched for a missing crew member.
Cumulative Losses Mount
Separately, Saudi Aramco disclosed that more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil have been lost globally since the conflict began in February, Ship & Bunker reported. Aramco CEO Amin Nassar was quoted as saying that even if the Strait reopened immediately, it would take up to 18 months at an average rate of 2.1 million barrels per day to replenish depleted inventories.
Meanwhile, Enverus Intelligence Research maintained a bullish long-term price outlook. Director Al Salazar said inventories are approaching historically low levels, Chinese demand is expected to recover, and risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb continue to threaten supply — factors supporting a $100-per-barrel Brent forecast through the second half of 2026 and into 2027, according to Ship & Bunker.
Does This Matter to You?
Developments in the Strait of Hormuz and broader U.S.-Iran relations carry direct implications for bunker pricing, vessel routing, and supply security in the region. The reported attack on a Liberian-flagged vessel underscores that physical risks to shipping remain active even amid diplomatic optimism. Continued volatility in crude benchmarks, as well as warnings from analysts about depleted global inventories, may influence fuel costs and availability for vessels transiting or bunkering near affected chokepoints.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker
