Adrian Tolson, who assumed the role of chair at industry body IBIA on April 1, has issued a statement assessing the state of the global bunker market in the wake of the ongoing Middle East conflict — commending the industry’s operational resilience while cautioning that the longer-term consequences may reshape the sector fundamentally, according to Ship & Bunker.
Tolson, who also serves as founder of consultancy 2050 Marine Energy, acknowledged the serious human and financial pressures weighing on those closest to the conflict. However, he noted that the broader bunkering industry has largely maintained business continuity.
Industry Holds Its Ground
Despite the disruption that has swept global energy markets since the conflict broke out at the end of February, Tolson indicated that day-to-day bunkering operations have continued with a degree of composure. As reported by Ship & Bunker, he stated that “bunkering activity has continued largely as it does in times of crisis, with calm operational professionalism and limited disruption,” adding that supply hubs beyond the immediate conflict zone — particularly across Asia — “have remained steady despite early panic.”
Margin Pressures and Pricing Tensions
Tolson was candid about the pricing dynamics that emerged in the early stages of the conflict. Ship & Bunker reports he acknowledged that uncertainty triggered sharp price increases and short-term supply constraints, with suppliers forced to manage what he described as “exceptional levels of price risk.” At the same time, he noted that buyers have been questioning some of the margins seen during the initial disruption, stating that “in some cases, those increases are difficult to justify.”
He called on all parties to recognise the pressures felt across the entire bunker value chain.
A Shift That Won’t Simply Fade
Perhaps most significantly, Tolson drew a distinction between this conflict and previous market disruptions, describing the current situation in the Arabian Gulf as something “more structural” in nature. Ship & Bunker reports he pointed to the vulnerability of the Straits of Hormuz as a key factor, warning that even a swift resolution would not erase the implications for the industry.
In his view, energy security concerns will persist, and the sector should anticipate a greater emphasis on supply diversification — including the accelerated exploration of alternative fuels. As he put it, the bunker value chain now faces “not only immediate disruption, but also longer-term changes in how supply and demand are structured.”
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker
