Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to its lowest recorded level of the conflict on March 8, with maritime monitoring data from the Windward Maritime AI Platform showing just two outbound vessel crossings and zero inbound movements. Both were Iranian-flagged, reinforcing the assessment that international commercial operators have effectively stepped back from the waterway.
Against this backdrop, the broader regional shipping picture is not simply contracting — it is reorganising, with traffic patterns, tanker behaviour, port operations, and upstream energy flows all shifting in response to the ongoing disruption.
Hormuz: International Commercial Traffic Effectively Withdrawn
According to data from the Windward Maritime AI Platform, March 8 recorded only two crossings through the Strait of Hormuz — both outbound and both Iranian-flagged. This represented a 33% decline compared with the previous day and fell well below the seven-day average of 5.88 crossings.
The exclusive presence of Iranian-flagged vessels points to a near-complete withdrawal of foreign commercial operators from the Strait.
One Tanker Reportedly Completes Dark Transit
Tracking data from the Windward Maritime AI Platform indicates that at least one commercial tanker may have attempted — and completed — an unusual transit through the Strait under atypical conditions.
The vessel reportedly loaded approximately one million barrels of crude oil at Saudi Arabia’s Juaymah Terminal before its AIS signal was switched off around March 4. The ship remained untracked for approximately five days before its signal reappeared at around 07:00 UTC on March 9.
If confirmed, the transit would represent a striking example of a small number of operators willing to conduct dark passages through the Strait — with AIS disabled during the highest-risk segment of the voyage — in order to capture elevated freight premiums.
Routes Reorganise: Cape of Good Hope Surges, Suez Declines
While Hormuz has largely fallen quiet, maritime activity is redistributing rather than disappearing, according to data from the Windward Maritime AI Platform.
Bab el-Mandeb recorded 30 crossings on March 8 — 14 inbound and 16 outbound — representing an 11.8% day-on-day decline but remaining above the seven-day average.
Suez Canal activity fell more sharply, with 31 crossings recorded, a 27.9% decrease compared with the prior day and below recent averages.
Cape of Good Hope saw a marked upturn, with 89 crossings recorded — an 89% increase day-on-day, exceeding the seven-day average. The surge points to a growing preference for long-haul rerouting around Africa as operators seek to avoid Middle East and Red Sea risk corridors entirely.
Gulf Ports Show Mounting Disruption
Operational strain is beginning to surface across Gulf port networks. According to the Windward Maritime AI Platform, exception activity on March 8 included:
- Jebel Ali (UAE): 10 transshipment delay cases, up 233% day-on-day
- Dammam (Saudi Arabia): 5 transshipment delay cases, up 400% day-on-day
- Shuwaikh (Kuwait): 4 late departure cases
- Umm Qasr (Iraq): 2 transshipment delay cases
The spike in exceptions across multiple ports suggests that logistical pressure is spreading through regional container networks as vessels delay or divert operations.
Iraqi Oil Production and Exports Fall Sharply
The consequences of the Hormuz disruption are now feeding directly into Iraq’s energy supply chain. According to Reuters and ShipUniverse, Iraqi authorities recorded zero oil and commercial vessel entries into Iraqi ports following the effective closure of the Strait.
Reuters reports that production from southern Iraqi fields fell by approximately 70%, dropping from roughly 4.3 million barrels per day before the conflict to around 1.3 million barrels per day. ShipUniverse reports that exports fell to approximately 800,000 barrels per day, with only two tankers in the process of loading and no new arrivals recorded. Storage capacity has reportedly reached maximum levels, with remaining output being redirected toward domestic refining.
China Deploys Intelligence Vessel to Gulf of Oman
According to Times Now News and Defence Security Asia, China has deployed the Liaowang-1 — a 30,000-ton signals intelligence vessel — to the Gulf of Oman, escorted by naval surface combatants. The platform is described as a high-capacity maritime intelligence asset equipped with long-range sensors and advanced signal-processing systems.
Its current positioning places it within observation range of the active conflict theater near the Strait of Hormuz, according to the reports. Modern Diplomacy notes that the deployment reflects China’s interest in monitoring real-time developments in a region central to its energy security.
Saudi Arabia Issues Direct Warning to Tehran
As reported by Reuters, Saudi Arabia has communicated a direct warning to Iran that it will retaliate if its territory or oil infrastructure is targeted. The warning, reported on March 7, reflects mounting concern among Gulf states that the conflict may widen beyond the Strait of Hormuz approaches and into broader regional energy infrastructure.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
