Two kinetic incidents within 72 hours have sharply tested the fragile post-ceasefire environment in the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits now averaging roughly 90% below pre-war levels, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.
The Strait remains technically open, but Windward’s latest reporting paints a picture of a corridor that is open in name only, with competing pressures from Iranian enforcement on one side and U.S. military-assisted passage on the other.
Two Attacks in Three Days
On June 25, the Singapore-flagged cargo vessel EVER LOVELY was struck by a projectile approximately 7.5 nautical miles southeast of Dahit, Oman, in the southern corridor. UKMTO confirmed bridge damage, with no casualties or environmental impact reported.
Two days later, on June 27, the Panama-flagged VLCC KIKU — a 333-meter vessel carrying Qatari crude — was hit by a UAV approximately nine nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman. According to Windward, KIKU was operated by a major international trading company, owned by a Liberian entity with Greek technical management, and carried no Iranian affiliation. The vessel sustained minor damage to its starboard bridge, with no casualties, and remained seaworthy.
Windward describes the targeting of a commercially neutral, non-sanctioned vessel carrying legitimate Gulf cargo as a significant escalation in targeting parameters.
IMO Corridor Suspended, U.S. Military Lane Still Active
The IMO vessel evacuation plan, launched on June 23 to move more than 550 stranded vessels out of the Middle East Gulf, was suspended directly following the EVER LOVELY attack. In the three and a half days it operated, approximately 115 ships and 2,500 crew members were moved, according to Windward. No confirmed resumption date has been provided.
The U.S. military-assisted southern corridor under Project Freedom has continued to operate throughout the suspension. As of June 29, Windward tracking confirmed a Saudi-flagged oil and chemicals tanker transiting the southern corridor at 13 knots, with a U.S. Air Force E-3B Sentry AWACS aircraft operating simultaneously over the UAE and Gulf of Oman — consistent with active air cover for the vessel’s passage.
Total daily transits are averaging approximately 13, compared to pre-war levels of 130 to 138 per day, representing roughly a 90% reduction.
Deceptive Flagging and Sanctioned Vessel Activity
Windward also identified two OFAC-sanctioned Iranian-linked tankers broadcasting fraudulent Norwegian flag registrations — described as one of the most audacious deceptive flagging incidents documented during the conflict. Norway is a NATO member with active involvement in shadow fleet enforcement. Windward assesses this as a deliberate provocation.
Separately, Kharg Island resumed dual-berth loading for the first time since June 20–22. A sanctioned IRISL-operated Iran-flagged tanker was confirmed loading approximately 707,000 barrels of gas oil and gasoline on June 28, according to Windward.
Does This Matter to You?
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz carries direct relevance across multiple areas of the maritime and shipping industry. The suspension of the IMO evacuation framework, combined with two kinetic strikes on transiting vessels — one of them commercially neutral, non-sanctioned tonnage — raises the risk profile for any vessel considering a Hormuz transit regardless of flag, cargo, or ownership structure.
The 90% reduction in daily transits affects the flow of crude, LNG, refined products, and dry bulk through one of the world’s most critical chokepoints. The identification of fraudulent Norwegian flag registrations by sanctioned tankers adds a layer of compliance complexity. Meanwhile, the ongoing activity of vessels with extensive AIS blackouts and identity manipulation events, documented by Windward in the June 28–29 overnight window, underscores the due diligence burden for anyone assessing counterparty or cargo exposure tied to this corridor.
For route planning, cargo sourcing, insurance underwriting, and sanctions compliance, the operating environment in Hormuz remains highly dynamic and materially different from pre-conflict norms.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Windward
