Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz came to a complete standstill on March 14, with no AIS-confirmed vessel crossings recorded in either direction — the first full day without visible commercial traffic since the conflict began, according to maritime intelligence platform Windward. The development marks a significant escalation in the disruption facing one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, through which a substantial share of global seaborne oil trade normally flows.
A Contested Strait — But Not a Formally Closed One
While AIS-visible traffic inside the Strait had dropped to zero, Iranian officials offered a different characterisation of the situation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on March 15 that the waterway remains accessible to international commercial shipping, and that only vessels linked to the United States and Israel are barred from transit, as reported by Business Standard. Araghchi attributed wider avoidance of the corridor to operator security concerns rather than any formal Iranian enforcement action.
The statement comes against a backdrop of U.S. warnings that multinational naval forces could be deployed to protect freedom of navigation if Iran moves to restrict transit, according to the same reporting.
Selective Movement Persists Below the Radar
Despite the AIS-visible halt, Windward confirmed that some vessel movement had occurred shortly before the blackout. Four cargo vessels were recorded crossing or in the process of crossing the Strait overnight on March 13, including one Pakistani-flagged vessel. Three additional vessels were also observed transiting during this period.
In a separate development, Turkish authorities confirmed that one Turkish-owned vessel was granted authorisation to transit the Strait following a port call in Iran. According to Windward, 14 further Turkish-linked vessels remain in the region awaiting similar clearance. A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image captured at 02:05 UTC on March 13 also identified an approximately 200-metre vessel transiting the Strait, suggesting isolated movement was still occurring hours before AIS traffic fell to zero.
These patterns indicate that access to the Strait may increasingly be governed through selective authorisation rather than standard commercial freedom of navigation.
Nearly 400 Vessels Anchor Off Hormuz
Rather than dispersing to distant alternative routes, a large number of operators appear to be holding station and waiting. Windward’s Remote Sensing Intelligence detected approximately 400 vessels operating in the Gulf of Oman on March 13. The vessel size distribution skewed toward commercial shipping, with 178 vessels measuring between 150 and 250 metres, 60 between 250 and 350 metres, and 11 exceeding 350 metres — consistent with a concentration of commercial cargo and tanker traffic rather than a small-craft anchorage area. Satellite imagery additionally identified at least eight vessels positioned east of the Strait in what appeared to be floating storage or waiting-to-load configurations.
Global Rerouting: A Mixed Picture
The disruption continues to reshape traffic flows across multiple global corridors:
Bab el-Mandeb: Transit activity remained broadly stable on March 14, with 21 recorded crossings — a 40% increase over the prior day and close to the seven-day average of 22.57, according to Windward data.
Suez Canal: Volumes dropped sharply, with 23 crossings recorded — a nearly 40% decline compared with the previous day and well below the seven-day average of 36.86, suggesting growing operator reluctance to use Red Sea-linked routes.
Cape of Good Hope: Long-haul diversions around southern Africa remained active, with 69 crossings recorded on March 14, though this represented a 28% decline from the day prior and sat below the seven-day average of 78.25 transits. The traffic mix included 27 bulk carriers and 13 container vessels, per Windward.
Fujairah Hit by Drone Debris Fire
Energy infrastructure beyond the Strait also sustained disruption. According to CNBC and Bloomberg, oil loading operations at Fujairah — the UAE’s principal crude export and bunkering hub, situated outside the Strait of Hormuz — were temporarily halted on March 14 after a drone-related incident. UAE authorities reported intercepting a drone, but debris from the interception triggered a fire at the facility, prompting a precautionary suspension of loading while damage assessments were carried out. Fujairah holds more than 70 million barrels of storage capacity and serves as one of the world’s largest bunkering hubs.
Kharg Island Continues Limited Operations
Iran’s primary crude export terminal at Kharg Island remains functional despite having sustained recent military strikes, as reported by The New York Times and The Washington Post. According to Vortexa data, two sanctioned tankers departed the terminal following March 11: the SERENA (IMO 9569645), which left on March 11, and the ARK III (IMO 9187655), which departed on March 15. The combined cargo associated with these sailings is estimated at approximately 2.68 million barrels of crude oil.
Satellite imagery from Windward corroborates continued activity at the site. Electro-optical (EO) imagery from March 14 identified six VLCCs and two smaller tankers at or near the terminal, while SAR imagery from March 15 showed approximately ten tankers in the surrounding anchorage area. NASA fire-monitoring data detected active fire signatures at the terminal on March 14, though no active detections were visible in subsequent March 15 imagery.
U.S. Issues Sanctions Waiver for Russian Oil at Sea
In a parallel policy development, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License 134 on March 12, authorising the completion of delivery and sale of Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products already loaded onto vessels on or before that date, as reported by Riviera Maritime Media. The measure covers an estimated 215 million barrels across approximately 377 tankers, comprising roughly 126 million barrels of crude, 60 million barrels of refined products, and 35 million barrels of fuel oil.
Windward data indicates that 44% of the affected vessels carry sanctions designations from the United States, United Kingdom, or European Union, and approximately half are classified as high-risk. The fleet spans around 10 VLCCs, 60 Suezmax tankers, 135 Aframax or LR2 vessels, and more than 130 Medium Range tankers. The licence does not authorise new Russian oil trade — it applies solely to cargoes already at sea. Beyond these GL134-covered cargoes, Windward estimates that a further approximately 250 million barrels of Russian oil remain at sea in floating storage or awaiting discharge.
Port Backlogs and Subsea Cable Suspension
Operational strain is also registering at regional ports, according to Windward. Salalah, Oman recorded 34 transshipment rollovers and 36 delay cases — up 76% against the seven-day average. Karachi, Pakistan logged six rollovers and nine delays, a 152% increase. Sohar, Oman saw three delay cases, up 162.5%, while Umm al Quwain in the UAE recorded delays running 900% above the seven-day average. Hamad Port in Qatar registered two transshipment rollovers.
Additionally, work on the ‘Pearls’ segment of the 2Africa subsea cable project in the Arabian Gulf has been suspended after contractor Alcatel Submarine Networks invoked force majeure, citing the regional security environment. The suspension extends the conflict’s disruptive reach into digital communications infrastructure.
Looking Ahead
The current maritime picture, as characterised by Windward, is one of suspended normalcy: commercial transit has visibly halted, but a large vessel concentration outside the Strait suggests many operators are not yet committed to permanent rerouting. If restrictions persist, prolonged pressure on Asia–Europe trade lanes, continued Suez Canal volume declines, and elevated reliance on the Cape of Good Hope route are among the probable consequences for global shipping.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
