A two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump will fall well short of restoring normal container shipping operations through the Strait of Hormuz, according to ocean and freight analytics firm Xeneta, as reported by Ship & Bunker. Xeneta issued an email update on Wednesday responding to the latest conditional ceasefire announcement, cautioning that carriers are unlikely to abandon the alternative routing networks they have worked hard to establish through Khor Fakkan, Sohar, and Jeddah — even as limited Strait transits may gradually test the waters.
Fragile Ground: Strikes Carry On Despite the Truce
Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, urged the industry to manage its expectations. “The ceasefire should come with a dose of reality because there is unlikely to be a rapid return to normality for container shipping in the Middle East,” Sand said, as quoted by Ship & Bunker. He acknowledged that Strait of Hormuz transits are likely to pick up, but stressed that “two weeks is a very short window of opportunity and there is no guarantee the ceasefire will hold.”
The security situation remained unstable, with Ship & Bunker reporting that drone and missile strikes continued on Wednesday — just one day after the ceasefire was declared. The ongoing conflict has already displaced around 250,000 TEU of weekly container shipping capacity, according to the report.
Sand also noted the considerable investment carriers have made in building out alternative corridors to keep trade moving. “You do not suddenly toss that out of the window because there is a two-week ceasefire,” he said.
Regional Ports Under Pressure
The shift toward alternative routings has put significant strain on ports across the region. As reported by Ship & Bunker, weekly container capacity into Jeddah and King Abdullah Port has climbed by 19%, driven by new carrier services designed to support a landbridge route into the Gulf.
Destine Ozuygur, Senior Analyst at Xeneta, pointed to ongoing disruption at major hubs including Mundra, Nhava Sheva, and Khor Fakkan — even with the workarounds now in place. “That is not going to go away overnight,” Ozuygur said, as quoted in the report.
Freight Rates Stay Elevated — With More Upside Possible
Freight rates in the region remain sharply elevated. According to the Ship & Bunker report citing Xeneta data, China-to-Jebel Ali spot rates have climbed more than 270% since the end of February, while China-to-US West Coast rates have risen by 37%.
Sand indicated that further near-term rate increases are plausible. “I would expect short-term rates to go a bit higher, simply because there is a two-week window of opportunity and everybody is in a rush,” he said.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker
