The Strait of Hormuz may be on a path toward reopening, but a full return to normal container shipping operations could still be months away. According to ocean and freight analytics firm Xeneta, the recovery process may not be complete until mid-September 2026, despite a preliminary agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the critical waterway.
The Scale of the Disruption
As reported by Ship & Bunker, Xeneta has outlined just how extensive the damage to global container shipping has become since hostilities broke out in late February. Before the conflict, 99 container services operating in or transiting the Arabian Gulf together deployed a combined capacity of 3.2 million TEU — roughly 10% of the entire global container fleet. According to Xeneta, only 11 of those services remain active today, with hundreds of vessels diverted or displaced across global trade routes.
Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, was quoted by Ship & Bunker as saying: “Even if the ceasefire holds, around 10% of global container shipping capacity is impacted by the blockade and freight rates are spiralling across major trades.”
Freight Rates Under Pressure
The blockade has driven spot rates sharply higher. Since late February, Xeneta reports that spot rates from the Far East to the US West Coast have risen 192%, while rates to North Europe have increased 106%.
Sand noted that rates are likely to keep climbing until the strait is fully reopened, with the market potentially peaking in the coming weeks before a gradual easing begins.
Adding to the pressure on shippers, Sand highlighted frontloading behavior: “Shippers are frontloading imports ahead of bunker fuel surcharge increases in July and fears over available capacity, with many being told ships are full on trades out of Asia for weeks in advance. Shippers who manage to get their boxes on board are paying a premium to do so.”
A Phased Recovery Ahead
The US-Iran agreement includes a 30-day period for minesweeping operations before normal shipping traffic can safely resume. Xeneta expects the recovery to unfold in distinct phases — beginning with the release of vessels stranded in the Arabian Gulf, followed by the gradual return of regional feeder services, and eventually the restoration of major Asia-Europe and Asia-North America container routes.
The firm also anticipates that carriers will use this disruption as an opportunity to redesign their networks, potentially increasing reliance on feeder services and transshipment hubs to reduce exposure to future Gulf disruptions.
Does This Matter to You?
With 10% of global container capacity still affected and spot rates on key East-West trades having nearly doubled or more, this situation carries real consequences across the shipping and bunkering space. Port congestion risks, vessel repositioning, changes to bunkering demand at key hubs, and shifting route economics all remain live concerns. The timeline to full recovery — potentially stretching into mid-September — means the effects on trade flows, capacity availability, and fuel demand are far from resolved.
Sand summed it up pointedly: “This agreement should be greeted with realism and extreme caution.”
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker, Xeneta
