Fears of a severe bunker fuel supply squeeze stemming from disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Middle East have yet to materialize, according to Ship & Bunker, even as attacks on shipping in the region continue to mount.
When the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed during the early weeks of the Middle East conflict, market participants braced for a supply crunch. Ship & Bunker reports that Asian suppliers urged buyers to secure cargoes early, while Fujairah experienced tightening supply heading into the summer months.
Prices Up, But Volumes Hold Steady
According to Ship & Bunker data, the G20-VLSFO Index reached $888.50 per metric ton on Tuesday, marking a 63.5% increase from its pre-war level of $543.50/mt recorded on February 27. However, this figure remains well below the March 20 peak of $1,053/mt, suggesting the most acute pricing pressure has eased.
Despite elevated prices, Ship & Bunker notes that Singapore—the world’s largest bunkering hub—sold 37.77 million metric tons of bunker fuel in the first eight months of 2026, representing the highest January-to-August total the port has ever recorded.
This resilience was echoed at last week’s Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore, where, as reported by Ship & Bunker, delegates indicated the market has adapted to prolonged disruption. Emarat Maritime managing director Rishi Nyati told conference attendees, “We do not see any problems with sourcing bunkers today and putting them on board.”
Conflict Continues to Escalate
Despite the apparent market stability, the underlying conflict shows no signs of resolution. Ship & Bunker reports that the IMO confirmed on Wednesday it has verified 80 attacks on shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, with at least 22 seafarers killed. Attacks in the Red Sea have also resumed, according to the report.
Adding to regional tensions, drone strikes launched from Iraq on September 10 and 11 struck Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline—a 1,200 km line to Yanbu on the Red Sea that has been carrying an estimated 4 to 5 million barrels per day of crude around the closed strait. Ship & Bunker states that Saudi Arabia shut the pipeline as a precautionary measure, a development that pushed Brent crude back above $100 per barrel.
Does This Matter to You?
For those tracking bunker availability and pricing in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific corridors, the contrast between resilient supply volumes and escalating regional attacks presents an important data point. Record Singapore sales volumes and supplier confidence expressed at APPEC suggest the physical supply chain has so far absorbed the disruption without triggering the shortages initially feared.
However, the continued rise in verified attacks, the resumption of Red Sea incidents, and the precautionary shutdown of a major pipeline indicate that underlying risk factors remain active. Price levels, while down from their peak, remain substantially elevated compared to pre-war benchmarks according to Ship & Bunker data.
Ship & Bunker is currently running a LinkedIn poll asking whether buyers and suppliers should be worried now, worried later, or whether the supply chain has demonstrated sufficient capacity to manage ongoing strain.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker
