Oil Set for Near 9% Weekly Surge as Israel Signals Iran’s Regime Nearing Collapse

Crude oil markets were on track for their sharpest weekly rally since July, even as Thursday’s trading remained relatively subdued following a fresh round of U.S. strikes on Iran, according to Ship & Bunker.

Brent crude settled 11 cents lower at $95.52 per barrel on Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edged up 29 cents to close at $91.30, Ship & Bunker reported. Despite the muted daily moves, WTI was up more than 9 percent for the week, marking the strongest weekly gain for the commodity since July.

Escalating Rhetoric From Israel and Washington

According to Ship & Bunker, the main driver of price action on Thursday came from Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz, who warned Iran that Israel would “cripple” its military and civilian infrastructure — including energy facilities — should Tehran launch retaliatory strikes. Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, identified this warning as the primary catalyst for the day’s trading momentum, Ship & Bunker reported.

The report also cites Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who spoke of toppling Iran’s Islamic regime, stating he was “convinced of our ability to remove this threat once and for all.” Netanyahu further described Iran’s leadership as “weaker than ever” and “fighting for its life,” according to Ship & Bunker.

U.S. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, indicated he did not expect further escalation this week, telling reporters, “I don’t think it will be very much longer; I don’t know how much more they can take,” as reported by Ship & Bunker.

Putin Comments Add Nuance to Market Sentiment

Separately, Ship & Bunker reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin told delegates at an economic forum that a settlement to end the war in Ukraine could be reached, and suggested such a deal would gain support from countries including the United States and China. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc., said these comments could help ease concerns over potential disruptions to Russian fuel supplies, according to the report.

Does This Matter to You?

Sustained volatility in crude benchmarks tied to Middle East tensions has direct implications for bunker fuel pricing, as VLSFO and MGO costs typically track broader crude market movements. Ship & Bunker’s own bunker price data shows recent upward movement across key ports including Singapore, Fujairah, and the Global 20 Ports Average, all posting gains alongside this week’s crude rally.

Any further escalation between Israel and Iran, particularly threats to energy infrastructure, could influence fuel availability and pricing volatility in the region, which is relevant for vessel operators and bunker buyers monitoring cost exposure. Conversely, developments such as potential progress toward a Ukraine settlement, as referenced by Putin, may factor into broader supply sentiment affecting Russian-origin fuel flows.

Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.

Sources: Ship & Bunker

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