The market for low-carbon marine fuels is set for a period of rapid expansion after 2030, according to the 10th edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 report, as cited by Ship & Bunker.
DNV estimates that shipping’s demand for low-GHG marine fuels could reach between 4 and 22 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2030, before climbing to a range of 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050. The wide spread reflects two contrasting regulatory scenarios modeled by the classification society.
Two Regulatory Paths
According to Ship & Bunker’s summary of the DNV report, the high-demand scenario assumes the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework (NZF) is adopted as currently designed and enters force from 2029, with remedial-unit pricing strong enough to push the fleet toward its emissions targets. The low-demand scenario assumes the NZF is indefinitely rejected, leaving FuelEU Maritime and the EU Emissions Trading System as the primary regional measures shaping fuel choices.
DNV said that “beyond 2030, the marine low-GHG fuel market could enter rapid growth and possibly reach saturation closer to 2050,” as reported by Ship & Bunker. The report also estimates that global supply of low-GHG fuels could reach as much as 270 Mtoe by 2030 if all currently announced production projects are completed — nearly double 2025 levels.
Biofuels First, E-Fuels Later
Biofuels are expected to lead the early transition, with DNV noting that pathways such as bio-methane from manure, sugarcane ethanol, and bio-diesel from waste oils could reach abatement costs of roughly $180-$300 per tonne of CO2 equivalent by 2030.
However, Ship & Bunker reports that DNV flagged a longer-term supply constraint: global biofuel production potential is estimated at around 1,300 Mtoe by mid-century, while total low-GHG fuel demand across all sectors could exceed 2,200 Mtoe by 2050 under a net-zero pathway. DNV warned this imbalance “may outpace supply, placing upward pressure on biofuel prices,” with shipping competing against aviation, road transport, and other industries for feedstocks.
As a result, DNV expects e-fuels to gain relevance over time. The report estimates the abatement cost of e-ammonia could fall from about $550/tCO2eq in 2040 to $380/tCO2eq by 2050, while blue ammonia is projected to remain at an intermediate cost of around $420/tCO2eq in 2050.
Regulation Remains the Deciding Factor
DNV emphasized that policy direction will determine how the market develops. “Sustained political commitment to decarbonization is therefore a prerequisite for demand for low-GHG-fuels, and consequently their pricing,” the report stated, according to Ship & Bunker. DNV also does not anticipate a single global price for low-GHG marine fuels, expecting early trade to rely on long-term offtake agreements before regional spot markets potentially emerge for fuels like drop-in bio-diesel and liquefied bio-methane.
Does this matter to you?
The scale of future demand growth outlined by DNV carries long-term implications for fuel procurement and infrastructure planning across the bunkering sector. If regulatory frameworks like the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework move forward as designed, demand for alternative fuels could scale up substantially within the next 25 years, affecting availability, pricing structures, and the mix of fuels offered at ports. Conversely, DNV’s low-demand scenario illustrates how the absence of strong global regulation could keep the market considerably smaller and more reliant on regional rules such as FuelEU Maritime and the EU ETS. Monitoring how these regulatory pathways evolve may help stakeholders anticipate shifts in fuel sourcing, pricing negotiations, and infrastructure investment over the coming decades.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker (DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050, 10th edition)
