LNG could account for as much as 42 million metric tonnes of marine fuel use by 2030, but only if LNG-capable vessels operate at full utilisation of their onboard fuel capability, according to the 10th edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 report, as covered by Ship & Bunker.
That figure translates to roughly 48 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), making LNG the single largest contributor to the nearly 60 Mtoe of alternative-fuel consumption the global fleet could theoretically reach by 2030 if all alternative-fuel capacity were fully used. According to Ship & Bunker, DNV’s estimate is based on the current fleet and orderbook through 2030, and should be read as a ceiling on potential use rather than a prediction of what will actually happen.
Capability vs. Actual Use
Most LNG-capable vessels run on dual-fuel engines, meaning they can switch between LNG and conventional fuel oil depending on which is more economical. DNV’s data, as reported by Ship & Bunker, shows this flexibility has kept actual LNG consumption well below theoretical capacity. Between 2019 and 2024, LNG carriers used between 69% and 79% of their estimated LNG consumption capacity, while other LNG-capable ships — such as containerships — used only 32% to 52%.
DNV linked this gap primarily to elevated LNG prices and the absence of stronger regulatory pressure to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The report specifically noted that in 2022, LNG bunkering prices at hubs including Singapore and Rotterdam rose sharply above fuel oil prices following the Ukraine war, pushing many operators back toward diesel-mode operation.
“When LNG bunkering prices are high, operating in diesel mode can be more cost-effective, leading many owners and charterers to limit LNG use,” the DNV report states, as quoted by Ship & Bunker. The report also noted that some operators prioritise fuel oil bunkering to avoid the longer off-hire periods associated with LNG bunkering operations.
LNG Carriers Lead, Methanol Follows
LNG carriers are projected to make up around 60% of potential LNG consumption in 2030, reflecting the sheer size of that fleet segment, Ship & Bunker reports. Among other LNG-capable vessels, container ships represent the largest share, at roughly 30% of potential LNG use.
DNV also flagged a structural issue for LNG carriers seeking to use low-GHG methane: since these vessels rely on boil-off gas from fossil LNG cargo tanks for propulsion, a flexible chain-of-custody system would be needed to credit any GHG reductions.
Methanol ranked second in potential fuel use, with DNV estimating around 7 Mtoe, or approximately 5 million mt, achievable by 2030. Container ships account for about 80% of methanol-fuel capability, according to the report cited by Ship & Bunker, with ultra-large and new Panamax container vessels together representing roughly 60% of that potential. Methanol utilisation has been even more uneven than LNG, ranging from 11% to 75% among methanol carriers and just 0% to 12% among other methanol-capable ships between 2019 and 2024. DNV noted that most methanol consumed to date has remained fossil-based, mirroring the pattern seen with LNG.
Does This Matter to You?
For those tracking alternative marine fuel adoption, bunker demand forecasting, or vessel newbuild and retrofit strategy, DNV’s figures — as reported by Ship & Bunker — offer a reality check on how fuel-capable tonnage translates into actual fuel demand. The data suggests that dual-fuel capability alone does not guarantee LNG or methanol uptake; bunker price differentials, bunkering logistics, and regulatory incentives remain the deciding factors in whether ships actually burn these fuels.
This has direct relevance for bunker suppliers and traders assessing future demand for LNG and methanol relative to conventional fuels, as well as for charterers and operators weighing fuel-mode economics on dual-fuel tonnage. Port and terminal planners considering LNG or methanol bunkering infrastructure investment may also find the utilisation gap relevant when sizing future demand projections.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker (DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050, 10th edition)
