Oil prices remained largely flat on Wednesday as markets absorbed the combined impact of stalled U.S./Iran peace talks and fresh attacks on shipping in two critical Middle East waterways, according to Ship & Bunker.
According to Ship & Bunker, the Iran-aligned Houthis carried out separate attacks in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait, with the Bab el-Mandeb strike reportedly killing six people. The report notes that vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to just eight on Tuesday, a steep drop from pre-war levels of 125-140 vessels, reinforcing concerns among analysts about the region’s stability.
Peace Talks Show No Sign of Progress
Adding to market unease, Ship & Bunker reports that a senior Iranian source told Reuters there are currently no discussions between Iran and the United States to extend their ceasefire. The source reportedly explained that, from Tehran’s perspective, the existing deal never had a start date, meaning there was technically nothing to extend.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, was quoted by Ship & Bunker as saying, “Optimism from earlier in the month is steadily being replaced by a more cautious, risk-premium-driven stance.” Waterer added that “the longer talks drag on without visible progress, and the more complex the reported demands become, the greater the scepticism that a workable agreement can be reached quickly.”
Prices and Demand Outlook
Despite the heightened geopolitical risk, Ship & Bunker reports that Brent crude settled up just 7 cents at $88.98 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate also rose 7 cents to settle at $83.27. The muted price movement came even as both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised their oil demand outlooks downward, according to the report. The IEA specifically forecast a 1.6 million barrel-per-day contraction in demand this year, alongside a predicted 4.3 million bpd drop in supply for 2026.
Does This Matter to You?
The sharp decline in Hormuz transit volumes, combined with active attacks in both key straits, points to continued disruption risk for vessels operating in or near these chokepoints. According to the source material, this situation is already influencing bunker price forecasts, with Ship & Bunker separately reporting that its Q3 bunker price outlook has been raised following the EIA’s abandonment of hopes for an early Hormuz recovery. Vessel operators and bunker buyers navigating these regions may want to monitor how the combination of stalled diplomacy and continued attacks affects both freight risk and fuel cost trajectories in the coming weeks.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker
