Oil prices posted modest gains on Friday, driven largely by a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report, even as reports emerged of Saudi Arabia preparing for a possible attack tied to Iranian-aligned forces, according to Ship & Bunker.
As of 1528 GMT, Brent crude rose 84 cents to $83.33 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 89 cents to reach $78.18, Ship & Bunker reported. The price movement followed news that the U.S. federal government lost 23,000 jobs in July.
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc., told Ship & Bunker that “the market on Friday is all about the jobs report… It means there’s less likely to be intervention by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.”
Strait of Hormuz Deal Still a Concern
According to Ship & Bunker, market analysts remain wary of a proposed Iran-Oman agreement that would grant Tehran control over vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Ship & Bunker cited CNBC’s reporting that the plan would see Iran ban U.S. and Israeli ships from the Strait, require other nations aligned with those countries to pay compensation for passage, and impose penalties of 20 percent of cargo value on violators.
Bjarne Schieldrop, analyst at SEB Research, said, as quoted by Ship & Bunker, that “the structure of the Iran-Oman agreement in its current form and the power it yields to Iran is nothing that [U.S. President Donald] Trump can accept politically.”
Saudi Attack Warnings Overshadowed
Despite the market’s focus on jobs data and the Hormuz proposal, Ship & Bunker reported that military analysts warned Saudi Arabia was facing a potential attack from Iranian allies based in Iraq and Yemen. Intelligence from Saudi and U.S. sources reportedly indicated that drones and missiles were being repositioned ahead of possible strikes on energy infrastructure, ports, and airports.
Separately, Ship & Bunker noted that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed a defense pact on the same day, agreeing that an armed attack on any one of the three nations would be treated as an attack on all three.
Diverging Price Forecasts
According to Ship & Bunker, Citi maintained its fourth-quarter Brent forecast at $70 per barrel and continues to project a 2027 average of $65, having earlier recommended selling into summer rallies on expectations of a broader U.S.-Iran agreement. Goldman Sachs, however, forecast Brent staying between $80 and $90 until a deal is reached or attacks escalate significantly, and flagged the possibility of oil reaching $120 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, Ship & Bunker reported.
Does This Matter to You?
The reported Saudi attack warnings and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz proposal both carry direct implications for vessels transiting the region and for bunker markets tied to Middle East supply. Should tensions escalate into disrupted shipping lanes or damaged energy infrastructure, this could affect fuel availability, freight routing decisions, and price volatility across benchmark crude and bunker fuel markets. The wide gap between Citi’s and Goldman Sachs’ price forecasts, as reported by Ship & Bunker, also underscores significant uncertainty facing anyone monitoring fuel cost exposure in the coming months.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker
