Crude oil prices jumped sharply on Wednesday after hopes for a diplomatic pause between the United States and Iran collapsed, according to Ship & Bunker. The spike followed President Donald Trump’s vow of “powerful retaliation” over what was described as a botched surprise Iranian attack on American forces in Jordan, unsettling markets that had briefly anticipated a de-escalation.
As reported by Ship & Bunker, Brent crude rose $5.84, or 6.9 percent, to $89.93 per barrel as of 1224 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate climbed $5.34, or 6.7 percent, to $84.60 per barrel.
Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea Tensions Add Pressure
According to the report, concerns over widening Middle East instability were compounded by Iran’s rejection of an Omani proposal for joint regional management of the Strait of Hormuz. Ship & Bunker also notes that Iran-backed Houthi forces are reportedly considering imposing fees on commercial vessels transiting the Bab el Mandeb passage in the Red Sea.
Despite the volatility, shipping data cited by Ship & Bunker showed only a limited number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz this week. Meanwhile, five ships passed through Bab el Mandeb on Wednesday, and 39 did so on Tuesday — the highest daily count since July 19, prior to a Houthi-announced maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia.
Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told clients, as quoted by Ship & Bunker, “We remain exceedingly skeptical that we are on the brink of a major diplomatic breakthrough that will resolve the nuclear standoff that started the war five months ago or enable the normalization of maritime traffic.”
Inflation and Fed Policy in Focus
Ship & Bunker, citing Bloomberg, reported that the sharp price swings — following similarly dramatic losses earlier in the week — have raised concerns that inflation could reaccelerate just as it appeared to be cooling faster than economists expected. This uncertainty comes as markets await the outcome of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates. According to the report, CME Group calculated a 34 percent probability of a Fed rate hike, which could dampen economic activity and oil demand.
Separately, Oilprice.com analyst Irina Slav, as cited by Ship & Bunker, cautioned that market optimism around a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal is overshadowing warning signs in physical oil markets. Slav pointed to record refining margins, tightening fuel supplies, and falling global inventories as evidence of growing stress, noting that demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is outpacing supply.
Does This Matter to You?
Continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb directly affects vessel transit planning, freight costs, and bunker fuel pricing volatility. The report’s data on vessel transit counts through these chokepoints, along with warnings about tightening physical fuel supplies, may be relevant to those monitoring bunker availability, shipping routes, and fuel cost exposure in the region. The source material does not specify further direct operational impacts beyond these market and transit indicators.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker (citing Bloomberg, RBC Capital Markets, and Oilprice.com)
