The volatility sweeping global bunker markets this year as a result of the Middle East conflict has reinforced the importance of choosing dependable fuel supply partners, according to Chimbusco Pan Nation (CPN), as reported by Ship & Bunker.
According to Ship & Bunker, fears over potential supply disruptions pushed bunker prices to four-year highs in March, and they remain well above pre-conflict levels. CPN director Calvin Chung told Ship & Bunker that maintaining service reliability, rather than pursuing higher margins during turbulent periods, has remained the company’s guiding principle.
“In a volatile environment like this, the temptation to chase margin is real, but what our customers need most is a stable and reliable partner,” Chung said, according to Ship & Bunker. He added that this approach “doesn’t change because markets get choppy,” while noting that CPN still looks to capture market opportunities where suitable, without compromising on supply-chain discipline.
Supply Chain Under Pressure
Speaking to Ship & Bunker, Chung explained that supply concerns tied to reduced transits through the Strait of Hormuz forced CPN to extend bunker stem ordering windows to four to six weeks ahead of delivery, compared with five to ten days before the conflict began. In the Asia-Pacific region, the primary worry was that disrupted Middle Eastern crude flows would cut refinery runs and squeeze VLSFO and HSFO availability at hubs including Singapore, Zhoushan and Hong Kong, per Ship & Bunker.
Even if the conflict eases, Chung does not expect bunker prices to swiftly return to February levels. Ship & Bunker reports that CPN anticipates bunker prices could take one to two months longer than crude oil to stabilize, given the lingering product-market premium.
Biofuel Demand Still Constrained by Policy Uncertainty
According to Ship & Bunker, the conflict has also narrowed price premiums for biofuel blends relative to conventional bunker fuels, as fossil fuel prices spiked while biofuel costs stayed comparatively steady. However, this has not translated into a lasting increase in biofuel blend sales across Asia-Pacific, Chung told Ship & Bunker, pointing to unresolved regulatory uncertainty as the main barrier.
Chung said a clear, mandatory financial penalty for excess emissions is needed to give shipowners predictable compliance costs and encourage supplier investment in infrastructure. Per Ship & Bunker, CPN does not expect meaningful commercial growth in the biofuel bunker sector until 2027-28, contingent on global mandatory enforcement frameworks taking shape.
Eyes on IMO’s Net-Zero Framework
As reported by Ship & Bunker, CPN is watching the upcoming MEPC meeting closely, viewing regulatory certainty as essential for unlocking green infrastructure investment. Chung said continued compromise is CPN’s expected outcome, likely resulting in a framework with built-in flexibility on timelines or compliance thresholds. Should the Net-Zero Framework fail to pass, Chung told Ship & Bunker that fragmentation into regional GHG policies among major bunkering hubs is “practically inevitable,” potentially involving expanded carbon trading pilots, adjusted port dues, and local fiscal incentives.
Does This Matter to You?
The extended lead times for bunker stems and the slower-than-crude normalization of fuel prices described by CPN carry practical implications for fuel procurement planning, particularly for parties relying on hubs in Singapore, Zhoushan, Hong Kong and the wider Fujairah region. The persistence of policy uncertainty around biofuel adoption may also affect decisions on fuel-switching strategies tied to compliance planning ahead of any IMO Net-Zero Framework outcomes later this year.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker
