A proposed U.S. fee on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a dramatic spike in freight rates, according to ShippingWatch.
Maritime analyst Lars Jensen told ShippingWatch that if the proposed fee is compared against freight rate levels seen before the recent conflict between the United States and Iran, the resulting rate increases could exceed 600 percent. Jensen’s comments come amid heightened tension in the region following military exchanges between the two countries.
Context of Regional Tensions
The warning follows a period of escalating military activity in the Middle East. According to ShippingWatch, oil prices have already surged following fresh military attacks between the U.S. and Iran, underscoring how sensitive both energy and shipping markets remain to developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
ShippingWatch also reports that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has declined following renewed attacks in the area, a trend that comes as the U.S. reportedly concluded a fourth wave of strikes against Iran within a single week.
At the same time, ShippingWatch notes that Maersk’s return to Red Sea transits is proceeding faster than expected, with the shipping line no longer viewing its Red Sea plans as directly linked to the situation in Hormuz. This suggests that while Hormuz-related risk remains a distinct concern, some carriers are treating regional routing decisions separately.
Does This Matter to You?
A U.S.-imposed fee on Hormuz transits, combined with the potential for freight rates to rise by several hundred percent according to Jensen’s estimate, would have direct implications for tanker owners, charterers, and bunker traders operating in or planning voyages through the Gulf region.
Higher transit costs and rate volatility could affect voyage economics, chartering decisions, and fuel procurement planning for vessels moving crude oil and other cargoes through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. The reported decline in vessel transits through the Strait, combined with ongoing military activity between the U.S. and Iran, adds further uncertainty to route planning and risk assessment for operators active in the area.
As details of the proposed fee have not yet been fully outlined in available reporting, the exact scope and implementation timeline remain unclear.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: ShippingWatch
