A resolution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis could pave the way for shipping companies to return to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal sooner than many in the industry currently anticipate — but the transition may not be without complications.
According to an opinion piece published by ShippingWatch, Lars Jensen, analyst and founder of Vespucci Maritime, argues that the two crises are closely linked. When the Hormuz situation is resolved, Jensen suggests, a return to Red Sea routing is likely to follow, potentially catching some market participants off guard.
A Tighter Timeline Than Expected
Jensen’s analysis points to a scenario where carriers could resume Suez Canal transits earlier than the industry has priced in. As reported by ShippingWatch, this earlier-than-expected normalization could extend the current strong freight rate environment — at least temporarily — as the market adjusts to shifting capacity dynamics.
At the same time, the piece highlights that a rapid return to Red Sea routing would increase the risk of operational disruptions during the peak shipping season, when demand pressures are already elevated and scheduling margins are thin.
Carriers Still in Wait-and-See Mode
The broader industry picture, as covered by ShippingWatch, reflects ongoing uncertainty. Hapag-Lloyd’s vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf despite earlier plans to exit, and Maersk has maintained a cautious, wait-and-see posture regarding the Strait of Hormuz situation. These developments suggest that while sentiment may be shifting, major carriers are not yet moving decisively.
Logistics companies, according to separate ShippingWatch reporting, are already identifying potential bottlenecks and trade imbalances that could emerge even in a positive resolution scenario. One source cited by ShippingWatch noted that “even in a positive scenario, the recovery will occur in phases.”
Does This Matter to You?
The potential for an earlier-than-expected Red Sea reopening has tangible implications across the maritime supply chain. A swift shift back to Suez Canal routing would affect vessel scheduling, port call sequences, bunker demand patterns, and available tonnage on key trade lanes. The timing — potentially coinciding with peak season — adds an additional layer of complexity for those managing fuel procurement, cargo planning, and vessel positioning.
The freight rate environment, currently supported by longer voyage distances caused by Cape of Good Hope diversions, could shift meaningfully if normalization occurs faster than expected. How quickly and smoothly that transition unfolds remains uncertain, and the risk of disruption during the adjustment period appears non-trivial based on Jensen’s assessment.
As the situation continues to develop, ShippingWatch notes that analysts are urging realism and caution, even as early signals point toward a potential de-escalation.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: ShippingWatch (Lars Jensen, Vespucci Maritime)
