Global marine fuel demand at key bunkering hubs climbed to its highest level since 2019 last year, according to a new market survey published by Ship & Bunker. Annual sales across 17 major locations rose 2% compared to 2024, with a solid fourth-quarter performance helping to secure the full-year gain.
Q4 Delivers Another Year-on-Year Advance
The quarterly survey, conducted by Ship & Bunker alongside consultancy 2050 Marine Energy, found that average volumes across the monitored hubs rose 2.9% in Q4 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier. This followed a stronger 4.3% year-on-year gain recorded in Q3. On a sequential basis, Q4 volumes were 1.3% above Q3 levels.
The survey covers approximately 59.7% of the global demand total of 245.1 million metric tonnes for 2024, as shown by official IMO data.
Diverging Regional Fortunes
Regional performance was uneven, according to Ship & Bunker’s report. Adrian Tolson, founder of 2050 Marine Energy, described a clear split across global ports.
“We can see trends that have been apparent for some time with Asian ports strengthening and in some cases setting bunker volume records,” Tolson told Ship & Bunker. “We see European ports maintaining strong sales. We can see a small decline in ports that peaked with Red Sea disruptions now returning to a more normal state. And real decline can be seen in the Americas where the impact of tariffs has taken a toll on demand.”
An Oversupplied Market Under Pressure
Beyond regional divergence, Ship & Bunker’s survey highlights that the final quarter of 2025 was characterised by overcapacity and shrinking margins. Intense competition from smaller trading firms weighed on returns across the sector.
Rakesh Sharma, managing partner of FLEX Commodities, told Ship & Bunker that the period was one of widespread complacency. “The VLSFO market was oversupplied, East-West arbs were shut, and most participants were positioned for a bearish 2026 driven by a projected crude surplus. Singapore premiums were capped, Fujairah was seeing its weakest sales in months, and the HSFO complex was caught between volatile stock swings and steadily declining flat prices.”
Jesper Christensen, managing partner of BlackCoral Energy, noted that competitive pressures also suppressed volumes into early 2026, though he told Ship & Bunker this was “offset to an extent in March and April due to the higher prices from the US-Iran war.”
Outlook Upended by New Conflict
The relatively predictable trajectory of the bunker market was dramatically altered when a new Middle East conflict emerged at the end of February 2026. Ship & Bunker reports that this development reversed prevailing expectations of a prolonged oversupply environment.
Sharma described the shift bluntly: “In hindsight, the market was sleepwalking into the most severe supply disruption in modern bunker history.”
Tolson echoed that assessment, telling Ship & Bunker: “On that day everything changed, supply disruption rapidly spread across the bunker supply chain as its fragility became readily apparent. Simple predictability of bunker demand has gone.”
As Ship & Bunker notes, the outlook for the remainder of 2026 now carries a level of uncertainty not seen at this stage in any recent year.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker
