The decisions the shipping industry makes about fuel in the next few years will determine whether a net zero future by 2050 is achievable — or merely aspirational. That is the central argument put forward by Daniel Bischofberger, chief executive of turbocharger and fuel-injection systems maker Accelleron, in a viewpoint published by Ship & Bunker on April 13, 2026.
Ships Are Ready — Fuel Is Not
According to Bischofberger, one of the clearest signs of where the transition stands is the gap between vessel technology and fuel availability. Dual-fuel ships capable of running on both conventional fuels and synthetic ammonia or methanol are already in operation. Their engines, he argues, are built to maximize efficiency — reducing emissions from fossil fuels today and preserving that efficiency for costlier synthetic alternatives in the future.
But the fuel itself has not kept pace. As Bischofberger writes in Ship & Bunker, green hydrogen supply chains remain deeply underdeveloped, requiring the build-out of renewable energy infrastructure, electrolysis capacity, synthesis plants, storage, pipelines, and port facilities on a massive scale.
The numbers illustrate the challenge starkly. He estimates that shipping alone would need between 100 and 150 million tons of green hydrogen annually as feedstock to achieve net zero by 2050. Across all hard-to-abate sectors combined, that figure rises to between 500 and 600 million tons — representing a total investment of approximately $9 trillion. For shipping specifically, that translates to a required upfront commitment of $2 to $3 trillion for feedstock, under purchase contracts running 10 to 15 years into the future.
Five Interlocking Barriers
Bischofberger identifies five structural factors he says are keeping the industry locked in place:
- Fuel fragmentation — Shipping is currently hedging across oil, diesel, LNG, and biofuels. While rational, this dilutes investment and prevents any single fuel from reaching scale. He likens it to an EV charging network with 12 incompatible current types.
- Geography — Green hydrogen production is consolidating around a small number of large, nation-scale projects. With 80% of the global fleet operating on flexible routes, forcing ships to divert to a handful of supply hubs would severely limit uptake.
- Finance — Shipping’s low-margin business model is built on universal access to the cheapest available fuel. Long-term, high-cost synthetic fuel contracts represent an entirely different commercial reality.
- Regulation — While global carbon pricing could theoretically level the playing field for the whole industry, it requires a two-thirds majority vote among IMO member states — something many governments remain reluctant to support.
- Ports — Most ports lack the capacity, land, and trained personnel to invest in new bunkering infrastructure without reliable supply and demand signals already in place.
Together, Bischofberger argues, these five factors reinforce one another in a self-reinforcing deadlock.
Cross-Sector Collaboration as the Way Forward
The Accelleron CEO’s proposed solution is coordinated demand across industries rather than siloed efforts within each sector. Shipping and aviation have each attempted to secure their own hydrogen and synthetic fuel supplies independently, and according to Bischofberger, neither has succeeded — because no single company or sector can shoulder the cost or scale alone.
He argues that shared offtake agreements between industries would produce contracts large enough to trigger construction, enable sequential infrastructure planning, make early-stage projects insurable, and eliminate costly duplication.
Regional Moves Already Underway
The viewpoint highlights several regions where early momentum is already visible. In Asia-Pacific, Bischofberger notes that Japan, Korea, and Singapore are focusing on imports, with utilities committing to ammonia offtake under national energy strategies, allowing safety standards, terminals, and bunkering systems to develop in advance of shipping demand.
China, he writes, made the strategic decision to pursue clean energy dominance earlier than most — cornering critical mineral processing markets, overbuilding renewables that can now feed hydrogen and synthetic fuel production, and scaling shipbuilding within four decades. He also points to a Chinese modular e-fuel facility already producing over 300,000 tons of green ammonia per year for export to Asia-Pacific and European markets.
In Brazil, the modular approach is also taking hold. The country’s large land area and low solar power costs, according to Bischofberger, give it a competitive edge in synthetic fuel exports. The ports of Açu and Pecém are already being developed as green hydrogen and e-fuel hubs serving power generation, industry, and shipping.
On the fossil fuel side, Bischofberger cites Wood Mackenzie data suggesting that without hundreds of billions in new upstream investment, global oil and gas production could decline by nearly 40% by 2040 — placing even conventional energy producers in a similar position of demand uncertainty.
The Decade That Counts
Bischofberger closes by framing the current period as the critical window. Whether net zero by 2050 is achievable, he argues, will depend on the choices made now — and the trade-offs from those choices will fall to the next generation. The task ahead, in his view, is for industry and institutions to move beyond internal silos and align demand, infrastructure, and investment across sectors.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker
