One month after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran at the end of February, the full weight of the resulting supply disruption is beginning to show up in global bunker price data — and the numbers are striking, according to an analysis published by Ship & Bunker on April 3, 2026.
Iranian forces responded to those strikes with attacks on other countries in the region and efforts to interrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. For the bunker market, the immediate consequence was a sharp repricing across all fuel grades, with the historically weak margins seen at the start of the year giving way to premiums to crude not previously recorded, Ship & Bunker reports.
Global Indices Tell the Story
Ship & Bunker’s G20-VLSFO Index — which tracks prices across 20 major bunkering locations — averaged $898/mt in March, representing a 65.2% rise from February. The index’s premium to Brent crude futures shifted from a 1.6% discount in February to a 23.9% premium in March.
HSFO fared similarly, with the G20-HSFO Index climbing 70.3% month-on-month to $768/mt. Its relationship to Brent swung from a 14.6% discount to a 6% premium over the same period. The G20 scrubber spread — the price gap between VLSFO and HSFO — widened from $70/mt in February to $126.50/mt in March.
MGO saw the sharpest gains of all three fuel grades, with the G20-MGO Index up 77.8% to $1,386/mt. According to Ship & Bunker, middle distillates have been the most affected refined product segment, given the outsized role that Middle Eastern refineries — and Asian refineries dependent on Middle Eastern crudes — play in global distillate production.
Despite the scale of these moves, Ship & Bunker notes that prices remain below the record highs reached in 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Supply at major ports is described as adequate for now, though spot delivery waiting times are running longer than usual.
Sharp Divergence Across Key Ports
While price increases were broadly uniform in the first days of the disruption, notable differences have since emerged between major bunkering hubs.
Fujairah has recorded the steepest gains of any top port, with VLSFO up 87.6%, HSFO up 81.1%, and MGO up 98.6% in March compared to February. Ship & Bunker attributes this to a near-collapse in supply at the port, where repeated attacks have driven many suppliers to suspend operations. The loss of traffic from vessels that would ordinarily transit the Strait of Hormuz has compounded the disruption.
Singapore posted the second-largest increases, with VLSFO rising 85.6%, HSFO up 74.3%, and MGO surging 136.8%. The analysis points to Asia’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern crude as a key driver. That said, supply in Singapore remains broadly sufficient for now. As the world’s largest bunkering hub, Ship & Bunker notes, the port is well-positioned to attract product from smaller regional locations and further afield should the supply squeeze deepen.
Rotterdam and Houston, by contrast, have so far seen more contained price movements. Rotterdam posted month-on-month gains of 58.1% for VLSFO, 66.6% for HSFO, and 69.9% for MGO. Houston’s increases were 59.4%, 64.7%, and 74.4% respectively. Ship & Bunker attributes the relative stability at these ports to their lesser dependence on Middle Eastern crude supply.
The Gap Is Already Narrowing
However, Ship & Bunker cautions that the current pricing advantage held by western ports is unlikely to persist if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted over a longer period. As product flows toward the hubs where demand is strongest regardless of price, inter-port spreads tend to compress over time. The publication notes this dynamic is already playing out between Singapore and Fujairah on one side, and Rotterdam and Houston on the other, with the significant premiums seen at the eastern ports having narrowed considerably over the past two weeks.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Ship & Bunker
