Hormuz Shipping Traffic Remains Effectively Frozen
As the conflict enters its third week, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has all but ceased, according to maritime intelligence platform Windward. Just two vessel crossings were logged on March 16 — one inbound and one outbound — representing a 33% decline from the previous day and falling well short of the recent seven-day average of 2.43 crossings. Both vessels were bulk carriers sailing under Panamanian flags.
Windward notes that overall transit volumes now stand roughly 97% below baseline levels, reflecting the sustained near-closure of one of the world’s most strategically critical energy corridors.
Controlled Routing Through Iranian Waters Emerges
Despite the collapse in standard commercial traffic, Windward has identified a new movement pattern forming within the strait. Between March 15 and March 16, at least five bulk carriers were observed navigating out of the Gulf along Iran’s coastline, within Iranian territorial waters, rather than using conventional international shipping lanes.
According to Windward, this routing shift points to the emergence of a selective, permission-based transit environment — where vessel movement is not entirely prohibited, but rather structurally managed under controlled conditions.
Iran Bypasses the Strait Entirely with Kooh Mobarak Export
Alongside these routing adaptations, Windward has identified a significant development in Iranian crude export behavior. On March 8, a sanctioned VLCC departed from the Kooh Mobarak terminal — situated east of the Strait of Hormuz — carrying an estimated 1.77 million barrels of Iranian Heavy Crude destined for Dalian, China. The vessel subsequently entered an AIS blackout that has now lasted more than 15 days.
Windward’s Remote Sensing Intelligence confirmed the presence of a VLCC-class vessel at the terminal on March 7, consistent with the reported loading window.
According to Windward, this marks the first recorded Kooh Mobarak export of 2026, following just a single shipment from the terminal throughout all of 2025. The terminal’s geographic position allows Iran to move crude without transiting the strait, representing what Windward describes as a deliberate effort to diversify export routes and preserve oil flows despite ongoing maritime disruption.
Tanker Struck Near Fujairah; GPS Jamming Hampers Investigation
A maritime security incident has been reported 23 nautical miles east of Fujairah, UAE, where a tanker anchored in the area sustained minor structural damage after being hit by an unknown projectile. Authorities are investigating the incident. No injuries or environmental damage were reported.
Windward noted that a GPS jamming zone active in the vicinity complicated efforts to identify the vessel and attribute responsibility. The incident reinforces what Windward describes as persistent low-intensity, high-frequency threat activity near key Gulf anchorage points.
OFAC-Sanctioned Vessel Detected Dark Inside the Strait
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery collected by Windward on March 16 identified an OFAC-sanctioned vessel transiting the western end of the Strait of Hormuz without broadcasting an AIS signal. Windward’s analysis indicates the vessel was underway and moving into the Arabian Gulf in an apparent ballast condition.
The vessel had last transmitted AIS on March 13, near the port of Khor Fakkan, before going dark. According to Windward, the vessel is linked to sanctioned networks and carries a fraudulent flag registration, consistent with established AIS suppression practices used to evade sanctions monitoring.
Port Disruptions: Karachi Elevated, Salalah Eases
Regional port operations continue to reflect uneven pressure across the Gulf and its alternative trade hubs, according to Windward data.
- Karachi recorded two late departures from port — a 100% day-on-day increase — along with seven cargo rollovers. That rollover figure sits 1,125% above the seven-day average, signalling acute disruption.
- Salalah logged 11 transshipment rollovers and 19 delay cases, both of which reflect sharp improvements from the previous day and are now tracking below the recent average, suggesting a temporary easing.
- Umm Qasr recorded two transshipment delays, unchanged from the prior day and consistent with the weekly average.
Bandar Abbas Goes Silent
Satellite imagery obtained by Windward reveals a stark contrast in activity levels at Bandar Abbas, one of Iran’s principal port facilities. On March 2, five commercial vessels and 17 military vessels were visible at the port. By March 15, neither dock showed any vessel presence at all.
Windward suggests this total absence of observable vessel activity may reflect a temporary drawdown or redistribution of both commercial and military maritime assets.
Russia-Linked Tanker Continues Anomalous Atlantic Behavior
Outside the Gulf, the Russia-associated tanker Sea Horse continues to exhibit irregular AIS patterns in the Atlantic, according to Windward. Since February 25, the vessel has remained at sea while continuously transmitting a “Not Under Command” status, with no clear movement toward its declared destination of Cuba.
Windward notes that the extended stationary pattern and inconsistent movement signals may indicate AIS manipulation or operational disruption, though a definitive cause has not been confirmed. The platform also observes that this behavior is consistent with earlier findings of dark tanker activity near Cuban crude terminals.
Additionally, Windward reports a confirmed tanker strike in the Black Sea, underscoring that maritime security risks are now extending well beyond the Persian Gulf into a broader, multi-theater threat environment.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Windward
