Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reached its lowest recorded point on March 9, with only a single outbound transit detected and no inbound movements observed at all, according to data published by the Windward Maritime AI Platform. The sole vessel was Iranian-flagged, reinforcing what maritime intelligence analysts now describe as an effective suspension of Western-linked commercial passage through the waterway.
Across the nine days prior, just 66 commercial vessels have transited the Strait — a fraction of normal throughput that Windward characterizes as consistent with blockade-like conditions.
Strait of Hormuz: Near-Total Standstill
The single crossing recorded on March 9 marks a 50% drop from the previous day and sits well below the seven-day average of 4.14 daily crossings, according to Windward. The intelligence platform notes that while Iranian vessels continue to operate through the corridor, broader international commercial traffic has largely withdrawn, and some China-linked vessels may be attempting passage under different security conditions. U.S. and British flagged vessels have reportedly been blocked.
Vessels Adapt with Defensive AIS Messaging
Windward also reports that 36 vessels transmitting AIS signals in the Gulf have modified their destination fields to broadcast nationality information — a behavior interpreted as a defensive signaling measure in response to the elevated threat environment.
Of those vessels, 30 are Chinese-linked, with standardized messages such as “CHINESE CREW OWNER” or “CHINA OWNER & CREW.” Five are Iraqi-flagged vessels referencing ownership identity, and one Turkish vessel is broadcasting “TRIST-TURKISH CREW.” The vessels involved span 22 cargo ships and 11 tankers, flying flags predominantly from Panama (11), Liberia (6), Hong Kong (5), and Norway (3).
Traffic Redistributes, but Doesn’t Normalize
Windward data shows that while Hormuz remains effectively closed to Western commercial traffic, maritime flows are redistributing rather than recovering. On March 9:
- Bab el-Mandeb recorded 16 crossings, down 46.7% from the prior day and below its seven-day average of 18.57
- Suez Canal recorded 40 crossings, up 29.03% from the prior day, broadly in line with its seven-day average of 37.29
- Cape of Good Hope recorded 81 crossings, slightly below its seven-day average of approximately 85
The Cape in particular continues to absorb significant diverted traffic, led by bulk carriers (40 vessels), container ships (14), and crude oil tankers (6), as long-haul rerouting around Africa remains the primary alternative to Gulf transit.
Dry Bulk Trade in Collapse
Beyond tanker traffic, Windward reports that dry bulk transits through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen by approximately 91%, with an estimated 280 bulk carriers currently stranded or effectively trapped within the Gulf. The disruption has severed supply chains for several key commodities, including approximately 18% of global iron ore pellet exports — primarily from Iran and Bahrain — and nearly 10% of global primary aluminum production, contributing to sharp price increases in aluminum markets.
Saudi Arabia and UAE Reroute Around Hormuz
Major Gulf producers are actively pivoting export infrastructure away from the Strait. According to Windward, Saudi Arabia’s offshore production at the Safaniya, Marjan, Zuluf, and Abu Safa fields has been partially shut down, with an estimated 2.0 to 2.5 million barrels per day offline. As reported by Splash247, Aramco has shut major offshore oilfields amid the escalating maritime conflict.
Saudi crude flows through Hormuz fell to 4.06 million barrels per day, down from a pre-crisis baseline of approximately 6.64 million barrels per day — a 39% reduction, according to Windward. In response, the Kingdom has redirected exports through the East–West Pipeline (Petroline) to Red Sea terminals, with Yanbu exports surging to approximately 2.47 million barrels per day during the week of March 2 — a 330% increase versus pre-crisis levels. Windward’s Remote Sensing Intelligence confirmed four crude tankers berthed at Yanbu on March 4, more than double the previous single-day peak.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has warned, as reported by OilPrice.com, that a prolonged halt in Strait traffic could have “catastrophic consequences” for the global economy, noting that current global oil inventories sit at five-year lows.
UAE Pivots to Fujairah
The UAE is making a parallel adjustment. According to Windward, Gulf-based crude exports declined to 1.63 million barrels per day, down from a January average of approximately 2.45 million barrels per day. Shipments are being redirected through the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) to the Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman, which is now handling roughly 1.01 million barrels per day — approximately 38% of total UAE seaborne crude exports. During the week of March 2, approximately 90% of Fujairah cargoes were destined for Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, per Windward data.
Iraq’s Export Collapse
Iraq has been severely impacted. Windward reports that national oil production has fallen from approximately 4.3 million barrels per day to around 1.3 million barrels per day, with exports down by at least 800,000 barrels per day. The closure of the Al-Basra Offshore Terminal and the inability of tankers to safely navigate the Strait are cited as the primary drivers.
Energy Markets Under Acute Stress
Energy prices have surged sharply. According to Windward, Brent crude is currently trading between $115.00 and $116.50 per barrel, with intraday highs approaching $120. WTI is trading between $108.88 and $111.00 per barrel, while TTF natural gas is near €90/MWh.
The platform reports 2,582 laden tankers currently in transit globally, with 155 vessels actively loading approximately 32.8 million barrels of cargo. Asia continues to absorb the dominant share of global wet cargo, with approximately 290 million barrels currently on the water bound for Asian destinations, per Windward. Major inbound hubs include Rotterdam (31.15 million barrels), Singapore (24.69 million barrels), and Sikka, India (22.44 million barrels), according to Vortexa data cited within Windward’s platform.
Asia Faces Energy Panic
The Economist reports that energy disruptions stemming from the Gulf crisis are triggering broader macroeconomic pressure across Asian energy markets, describing the situation as an “energy panic.” China, Japan, and South Korea — all heavily reliant on Gulf crude imports — are now competing more aggressively for alternative supply sources, including U.S. crude and Omani grades, according to Windward.
LNG supply has also been affected. Windward reports that no LNG tankers have exited the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the conflict, and damage to Qatar’s main LNG export facility has further tightened availability. In China specifically, several major refineries have reduced operating capacity or declared force majeure due to feedstock shortages, with Asian buyers now seeking replacement cargoes from Africa and Latin America.
Pakistan Launches Naval Escort Operation
Pakistan has initiated a maritime security operation, named Muhafiz-ul-Bahr, to escort merchant vessels along key Sea Lines of Communication. As reported by multiple Pakistani news outlets including Brecorder and The Express Tribune, the Pakistan Navy launched the operation in direct response to the deteriorating regional security environment. Two merchant vessels — including ships operated by the Pakistan National Shipping Corporation — are currently under naval escort, with one expected to arrive in Karachi shortly. Pakistan relies on maritime routes for approximately 90% of its trade, according to the Navy’s own statements.
Port Disruptions Spreading Regionally
Windward data shows rising operational exceptions across multiple regional ports, indicating that logistical strain is no longer confined to the Hormuz chokepoint:
- Dammam, Saudi Arabia: 12 late-departure cases, 2 transshipment rollovers
- Salalah, Oman: 2 late departures, 2 port-of-loading rollovers, 11 transshipment rollovers, 9 transshipment delays
- Sohar, Oman: 2 port-side rollovers, 2 transshipment delays
- Karachi, Pakistan: 2 late departures, 2 port-of-loading rollovers, 2 transshipment rollovers, 2 transshipment delays
Cuba Feels Secondary Shockwaves
The ripple effects are spreading well beyond the Gulf. Cuba is experiencing its lowest tanker port call volume in at least twelve months, with only 11 tanker arrivals recorded so far in March, according to Windward. Monthly arrivals had already declined from 53 calls in January to 34 in February. Vortexa data shows that no laden or loading tankers are currently reporting Cuba as a destination.
Windward tracking also flagged potentially anomalous behavior involving the tanker SEA HORSE (IMO 9262584). The vessel was openly sailing toward Cuba until February 25, after which visible AIS reporting appears to have ceased as it approached the region — behavior Windward describes as potentially consistent with AIS spoofing or dark activity, though the vessel’s current status remains unconfirmed.
Reuters has reported that power outages across Cuba have intensified, with blackouts in Havana and central regions lasting up to 18 hours per day.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Windward Maritime AI Platform, Vortexa, Splash247, OilPrice.com, The Economist, Reuters, Brecorder, The Express Tribune
