Hormuz Crossings Reach New Low as International Operators Withdraw
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to its lowest level since the start of the conflict on March 8, with only two outbound vessel crossings recorded and no inbound traffic observed, according to data from the Windward Maritime AI Platform. Both vessels were Iranian-flagged, reinforcing the assessment that foreign commercial operators have effectively ceased transiting the waterway.
The two crossings represent a 33% decrease from the previous day and fall well below the seven-day average of 5.88 crossings, the Windward data shows.
A Tanker in the Dark: One Operator Appears to Have Risked the Passage
Despite the near-total withdrawal of international traffic, evidence has emerged that at least one commercial tanker may have completed a clandestine transit through the Strait during the current crisis. According to the Windward Maritime AI Platform, the vessel appears to have loaded approximately one million barrels of crude oil at Saudi Arabia’s Juaymah Terminal before disabling its AIS signal around March 4. The vessel reportedly remained dark for approximately five days before its signal reappeared at around 07:00 UTC on March 9.
If confirmed, the transit would represent one of the most audacious commercial voyages undertaken since the disruption began. The behavior points to a widening divide between risk-averse operators that have suspended Gulf operations and a small number of owners apparently willing to conduct dark passages in order to capture the elevated freight premiums currently on offer.
Global Shipping Reroutes as Cape of Good Hope Surges
While Hormuz has effectively gone quiet, maritime activity is not disappearing — it is redistributing. Transit activity around the Cape of Good Hope surged sharply on March 8, with 89 crossings recorded, an 89% increase compared with the previous day and well above the seven-day average, according to Windward data. The sharp rise signals that an accelerating number of operators are opting for the longer route around Africa to avoid Middle East and Red Sea risk corridors entirely.
Bab el-Mandeb remained comparatively active, recording 30 crossings — 14 inbound and 16 outbound — representing an 11.8% decline from the previous day but remaining above its seven-day average. Suez Canal activity declined more sharply, with 31 crossings recorded, a 27.9% drop from the prior day and a fall below the seven-day average, reflecting broader uncertainty surrounding regional cargo flows.
Gulf Ports Feel the Strain
Operational stress is spreading across regional port infrastructure. Exception activity recorded on March 8 included 10 transshipment delay cases at Jebel Ali in the UAE — a 233% day-on-day increase — along with 5 transshipment delay cases at Dammam in Saudi Arabia (+400% day-on-day), 4 late departure cases at Shuwaikh in Kuwait, and 2 transshipment delay cases at Umm Qasr in Iraq, according to data from the Windward Maritime AI Platform.
The rising exceptions across multiple Gulf ports suggest that logistical strain is beginning to cascade across regional container networks as vessels delay or alter their operations.
Iraqi Oil Production and Exports Collapse
The maritime disruption is now translating directly into upstream energy consequences. According to Reuters, Iraqi oil production from southern fields fell by approximately 70%, dropping to around 1.3 million barrels per day from a pre-conflict level of roughly 4.3 million barrels per day. Exports declined to approximately 800,000 barrels per day, with only two tankers loading and no new vessel arrivals, Reuters reports.
ShipUniverse reports that zero oil and commercial vessel entries were recorded at Iraqi ports following the effective closure of the Strait. Storage capacity has reportedly reached maximum levels, forcing remaining production to be redirected toward domestic refining rather than export.
China Positions Intelligence Vessel in Gulf of Oman
Amid the escalating crisis, China has reportedly deployed the Liaowang-1 signals intelligence vessel to the Gulf of Oman, according to reporting by Times Now News and Defence Security Asia. The 30,000-ton vessel, escorted by naval surface combatants, is described as a high-capacity maritime intelligence platform equipped with long-range sensors and advanced signal-processing systems. Its positioning places it within observation range of the active conflict theater near the Strait of Hormuz.
Modern Diplomacy reports that the deployment reflects China’s interest in monitoring developments in real time in a region central to its energy security.
Saudi Arabia Issues Warning to Tehran
Saudi Arabia has issued a direct warning to Iran that it will retaliate if its territory or oil infrastructure is attacked, according to Reuters. The statement reflects deepening concern among Gulf states that the conflict could expand beyond the Strait of Hormuz into broader regional energy infrastructure — a scenario that would carry significant further consequences for commercial shipping and global energy markets.
Disruption Expanding Beyond the Strait
The developments of March 8–9 collectively indicate that the maritime consequences of the conflict are no longer confined to the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping routes, tanker deployment patterns, port operations, and energy export flows are now adjusting simultaneously across the region. Cape of Good Hope diversions are accelerating, Gulf ports are showing early signs of logistical strain, and Iraqi oil output has already entered a steep decline. Whether the situation stabilizes or deteriorates further will depend on developments that remain highly fluid.
Gulf Bunkering does not provide operational or security guidance. This article is for informational purposes only. Operators should consult flag state authorities, P&I clubs, and relevant advisories for decisions relating to transit planning.
Sources: Reuters, ShipUniverse, Times Now News, Defence Security Asia, Modern Diplomacy, Windward Maritime AI Platform
